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PHIL SAYS EARLY SPRING!

〰️ PHIL SAYS EARLY SPRING!

"This is one time where television really fails to capture the true excitement of a large squirrel predicting the weather."—From the movie ‘Groundhog Day’

On February 2nd, thousands will assemble at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, eagerly anticipating the prognostication (weather forecast) of a groundhog named Phil. Legend has it that, if the 20-pound groundhog emerges and spots his shadow, the United States should brace for an additional six weeks of winter weather. Otherwise, we should see an early Spring. Phil is the more popular groundhog.

Well, who the heck is Staten Island Chuck? He was the groundhog from the Staten Island Zoo that Mayor Bloomberg dropped in 2009 when the testy little bugger bit him. He survived the drop. However, his daughter Charlotte, who replaced her grumpy dad, died a week after she was dropped by Mayor DeBlasio in 2014. A Zoo spokesperson said that Charlotte died due to internal injuries, BUT NOT FROM THE FALL, as she had participated in several other activities since the accident and was doing fine. The Zoo has since changed the ceremony, so that Chuck is no longer held aloft during the prediction.

So, what’s my point? Well, some sources say that Chuck has been 68% correct in his predictions while Phil has been only 42% accurate. (Some stats say 47%). See below…

**Groundhog or Woodchuck**

The emergence of the **groundhog (woodchuck)** from its burrow is said to foretell the **weather** for the following **six weeks**.

The Gobbler's Knob Visitor Center can be found at 1548 Woodland Avenue Ext in Punxsutawney. Phil's Burrow can be found at 300 East Mahoning Street in Punxsutawney.

Phil the groundhog has been forecasting the seasons on Groundhog Day at Gobbler's Knob since 1887.

Punxsutawney Phil's process for predicting spring hasn't changed much in the past 136 years. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club takes care of Phil year-round, and on each Feb. 2, members of the club's Inner Circle rouse Phil at sunrise (this year at 7:22 a.m. EST) to see if he casts a shadow. Contrary to popular belief, Phil doesn't actually have to see his shadow; he just has to cast one to make his wintry prophecy.

Will Punxsutawney Phil be right?

According to the Groundhog Club's records, Punxsutawney Phil has made 108 predictions of more winter and 20 predictions of early spring. There are nine years without records, leaving a mystery about Phil's whereabouts. Data from the Stormfax Almanac indicates Phil's six-week prognostications have been correct about 39% of the time, and a 2012 to 2021 study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information showed a 40% accuracy rate. However, when comparing Phil's predictions to actual weather outcomes since 1969, his overall accuracy drops to about 36%, according to meteorologist Tim Roche at Weather Underground. Notably, Phil's accuracy increases to a 47% rate when he doesn't see his shadow and predicts an early spring.

A fun fact: Phil has a wife name Phyliss.
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OMG! He fumbles the poor little groundhog. It wasn’t Staten Island Chuck but his daughter Charlotte.

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The groundhog is commonly referred to as the woodchuck, is a member of the Sciuridae family, categorized within the larger group of marmots, which are sizable ground squirrels. Native to North America, this burrowing rodent predominantly inhabits lowland areas, spanning from the Eastern United States, across Canada, and extending into Alaska.

Besides rogue cats, I would watch groundhogs crawl up out of the woods behind my previous residence in Da ‘Burgh to raid the adjacent vegetable raised beds of the Community Garden.